The 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), held in Baku, Azerbaijan, concluded on 23rd November, 33 hours behind schedule. COP29 delivered noteworthy outcomes in some areas, seeing successful progress with new energy pledges and the finalisation of long-awaited rules for carbon trading, but fell short in other areas, particularly in climate finance and just transition efforts.
COP29 Outcomes: Energy Commitments
New Nationally Determined Contributions
Perhaps the most successful outcome from COP29 was the pledges from nations and coalitions announced at this year’s conference. Three countries published their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC’s) ahead of the 2025 deadline – though some received a mixed reception:
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
The UAE announced an emissions reduction target of 47% by 2035, and net-zero by 2050. Whilst a step in the right direction, critics argued it lacked credibility, since their 2030 target remained below expectation and the country plans to increase its oil and gas production.
Brazil
Brazil’s new NDC included a 59–67% emission reduction from 2005 levels. This also received a lukewarm response. According to Brazil’s climate observatory body, the country would actually need to see a 92% reduction to align with the 1.5°C goal.
United Kingdom (UK)
Keir Starmer announced that, in line with recommendations from the Climate Change Committee, Britain’s new NDC would commit to an 81% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2035. This ambitious target was met with a widely positive reaction.
Mexico
Though Mexico did not announce a new NDC, they did publicise their aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. This means that every member of the G20 now has a 2050 net zero goal.
International Pledges
Alongside new NDC’s there were a number of new commitments to anti fossil fuel initiatives.
Powering Past Coal Pledge
Twenty-five countries and the European Union committed to including a “no new unabated coal power” in their next NDC. This means that these countries will not produce any more coal power without capturing the CO2 emissions.
Coalition Against Fossil Fuel Subsidies
Three new countries, the UK, Columbia and New Zealand joined the Coalition Against Fossil Fuel Subsidies. This brings together governments from across the world who are aiming to phase out fossil fuel subsidies. The coalition now has 16 members.
Global Clean Power Alliance
Though not technically an outcome of COP29, the Global Clean Power Alliance (GCPA) is relevant. The G20 conference coincided with COP29, and there, the UK announced the GCPA, a coalition of countries working to triple renewable energy capacity and double current energy efficiency rates, all by 2030. The members of this new alliance are Brazil, Australia, Barbados, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, Morocco, Norway, Tanzania, and the African Union, supported by the US and EU.
Clean Energy Pledges
Particularly exciting for Storelectric at COP29 were the outcomes of day five, branded Energy Day, which saw a number of new clean energy pledges.
Energy Storage and Grids Pledge
The COP29 presidency asked nations to commit to a new global goal for energy storage capacity. This would see the deployment of 1,500 GW of energy storage by 2030, which is more than six times the capacity in 2022. The pledge also commits to adding or modernising 25 million kilometres of energy grids internationally by 2030.
Green Energy Zones and Corridors Pledge
In this pledge, the COP29 presidency called on nations to commit to creating zones and corridors that link green energy generation sources. These connections would enable the cost-effective and secure transmission of clean electricity while also fostering the development of green energy hubs. The pledge aims to drive investment, modernise energy infrastructure, and enhance regional cooperation. By doing so, energy transmission systems and the power grid can keep up with the rapid expansion of renewable energy.
The Hydrogen Declaration
Here the COP29 presidency urged nations to scale up production of zero-emission and low-carbon hydrogen. This includes speeding up efforts to decarbonise existing hydrogen production. Globally, the aim is to increase green hydrogen production beyond the current 1 million tonnes per year and significantly reduce the 96 million tonnes of hydrogen currently produced using fossil fuels.
The Nuclear Capacity Pledge
Six new countries announced their alignment with the international goal to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, bringing the total to thirty-one. The new members, El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Nigeria, and Turkey currently have no nuclear capacity.
Article 6: Carbon Trading Market Breakthrough
After almost a decade of unsuccessful negotiations, COP29 reached an agreement finalising the rules for an international carbon trading market. The concept of the carbon trading market was established in 2016 under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. As of 2023, £937m worth of carbon credits have been traded. The international carbon market allows parties to trade carbon credits, which are generated by the reduction or removal of carbon emissions from the atmosphere. This could come in the form of switching energy generation from fossil fuels to renewables, or by increasing carbon stores, for example, by planting lots of trees.
Before COP29, some key rules still hadn’t been agreed upon, which have now been finalised, fully operationalising Article 6.
Article 6.2
This established a set of transparency requirements for country-to-country carbon trading. Once transferred, credits cannot be altered without upfront agreement. It also requires more upfront information about how the credits were issued prior to trading, in an effort to track actual emission reduction and prevent unregulated trading.
Article 6.4
This created a set of new mechanisms for the carbon market to function under. These include:
- Mandatory sustainable development criteria to safeguard human rights and environmental standards,
- Checks to prevent high emission projects flying under the radar,
- A supervisory body approving methodologies for carbon reduction,
- A register that projects must be listed on before credits can be traded.
These developments aim to enhance private-sector confidence in carbon markets, encouraging more participation by ensuring that traded credits reflect actual, stable reductions in emissions.
Divisions on the Global Stocktake
The Global Stocktake (GST) is a process set under The Paris Agreement that evaluates collective progress toward climate goals, particularly the 1.5°C target. It was intended to serve as a springboard for ramping up ambition and aligning countries’ efforts with scientific recommendations. COP29, however, failed to deliver the outcomes many had hoped for.
What is the Global Stocktake?
The GST reviews three pillars of climate action: mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation (finance, technology etc). It assesses global progress every five years and informs the next round of NDCs. The first GST was finalised at COP28, and COP29 was expected to build on its keynote decision, to transition away from fossil fuels.
COP29’s slow progress
While developed nations pushed for strong commitments to phase down fossil fuels, there was pushback from major oil and gas producing nations. Many countries resisted aligning their updated NDCs with the findings of the first Global Stocktake, citing a lack of international financial support for economies dependent on fossil fuels.
There was hope for a cover text, produced by the COP29 presidency specifically addressing the phaseout of unabated fossil fuels. This never materialised, delaying discussions on the matter until COP30.
A New Climate Finance Goal: The NCQG
One of COP29’s central goals was to set the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). This aimed to replace the previous $100 billion climate-finance target COP15 established. While negotiators reached an agreement (a day late), the final numbers and mechanisms left many unsatisfied. The $300 billion commitment is seen as insufficient compared to the actual needs for adaptation and mitigation. The UN estimates this figure will need to exceed $2 trillion annually by 2030 for developing nations and emerging markets.
The Final Finance Agreement
Developed countries committed to providing $300 billion annually by 2035. The overall goal also aims to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by leveraging public funds, private investments, and voluntary contributions. The agreement encourages wealthier developing nations, such as China, to contribute voluntarily. Whilst previously only developed nations could contribute, developing nations can now add to the fund without changing their developmental status and losing access to associated benefits.
Developing nations demands
Developing nations sought $440–900 billion annually in grant-based funding alone. They stressed that public funding, not private, is crucial for adaptation, loss and damage, and just transitions. Developing nations were also firm in their stance that only developed countries should have to contribute to the fund.
Developed nations demands
The proposal from developed nations suggested providing or mobilising a smaller goal of $250 billion annually. It also aimed for a larger investment goal by incorporating private investments that were not related to government funds. They also called for contributions from wealthy, high emitting developing countries, such as China.
Reactions to the Agreement
Developing Nations
Many saw the outcome as a missed opportunity to deliver climate justice. The small island states and least developed countries, who bear the brunt of climate impacts were particularly unhappy. Representatives of these nations staged a walkout from negotiations during the conference.
Developed Nations
Some nations raised questions about the feasibility of achieving the $1.3 trillion target without significant private-sector engagement. The US state department expressed its concerns that even the initially proposed $250 billion annually by 2030 goal would need an “extraordinary reach” to supply funding.
Impact of the U.S. Election Results
Days before COP29, Donald Trump secured a second term as U.S. president, campaigning on promises to roll back climate action and withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement. This created significant unease, as delegates questioned the future of U.S. involvement in international climate efforts. Outgoing U.S. climate envoy John Podesta stepped up to reassure participants that President Biden’s administration would continue to honour its commitment to the Paris Agreement.
Trump’s election also influenced the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) negotiations. While developed countries pledged to provide $300 billion annually to developing nations by 2035, the figure fell short of the $1.3 trillion demanded by the global south. With Trump’s inauguration looming, the outgoing Biden administration could not commit to supplying additional funds, weakening the potential of the US’s contribution.
Adaptation, Loss and Damage, and a Just Transition
Many now consider that COP29 failed to deliver in several areas key to achieving a fair and effective climate strategy. The lack of progress in adaption, loss and damage funding and the just transition programme exemplifies this.
Adaptation
Negotiations on establishing a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), which aims to create a framework for assessing adaptation needs and progress, stalled because of significant disagreements. Countries could not agree on how to measure and report adaptation progress. Developing nations opposed the proposed agreements emphasis on transformative adaptation, fearing it might shift funding away from immediate needs like building resilient infrastructure or disaster management.
Loss and Damage Fund
Despite strong advocacy from vulnerable nations, the NCQG did include the loss and damage fund. While the Loss and Damage Fund was agreed upon at COP28, COP29 made no commitments for additional funding or an implementation framework. Developing nations highlighted the inadequacy of relying on voluntary contributions and demanded dedicated, grant-based funding mechanisms.
Just Transition
The Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP), introduced at COP26, was expected to provide a framework for ensuring equity during the shift to net zero. At COP29, however, talks broke down between developed and developing nations. Developed nations pushed to prioritise mitigation targets (emissions reduction), while developing nations emphasised labour rights and community resilience. They argued that the just transition must balance emission goals with poverty eradication and economic development, particularly for industries and workers in fossil fuel-dependent regions. In the end, COP29 failed to deliver any operational guidelines on the Just Transition Framework.
Gender Action Plan
The COP29 presidency sparked controversy when they announced their organising committee consisted of 28 men and no women. Though this was swiftly rectified, gender remained a contentious topic at the summit. There was considerable debate on the extension of the Gender Action Plan. The main issues were the length of its extension (five or ten years) and the use of inclusive language. At the end of the first week, negotiators reached an agreement to extend the programme by ten years. However, the text excludes references to intersectionality and diverse identities due to opposition from a number of nations, including Russia and Indonesia.
Beyond COP29
COP29 delivered some meaningful progress in advancing clean energy solutions. The spotlight on energy storage, hydrogen technology, and grid resilience was a welcome development. Global acknowledgement of these crucial technologies continues to grow, which COP29 highlighted. The energy storage and grids pledge, the green energy zones and corridor pledge, and the hydrogen declaration are all developments which align closely with Storelectric’s mission.
The $300 billion annual climate finance target provides an avenue for scaling the clean energy technologies needed across the globe to support mass decarbonisation. While this fell short of the demands from the global south, the agreement marks a step in the right direction. Particularly important is the inclusions of mechanisms like the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap which aims to unlock further private-sector investment at next years COP, hosted by Brazil. This hopes to drive investment in and wide spread adoption of clean energy infrastructure in developing nations.
Eyes now turn to COP30. The foundations laid in Baku will hopefully build momentum, provide a platform further progress. Change is being made, and with continued, united effort, the global community can move closer to a greener future.
